Australia Braces for Sizzling Summer Despite La Niña Speculation

While some La Niña-like conditions have led to cooler temperatures across some parts of Australia this spring, there is a good chance much of the country will still sizzle through typical summer conditions.
Speculation has mounted that Australia could see La Niña conditions through the rest of the year, but the Bureau of Meteorology says modelling is hinting at more typical weather conditions.
The cooler spell from Sept. 13 to 19 came about as a result of strong south-to-south-easterly winds bringing a cold air mass from the south, coupled with clear skies at night over much of southern Queensland.
Colder patches in September are not considered overly unusual for Australia.
However, predictions around the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) show the pendulum could swing either way as to whether Australia sees a cooler, wetter warm season or typical summer conditions.
ENSO is a global climate phenomenon that emerges from variations in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean.
The weather bureau’s outlook scale has seven categories, with La Niña and El Nino at opposite ends.
La Niña currently sits at “watch,” one level above “alert” and two above a declared La Niña system. The current outlook remains one notch away from “neutral.”
“While some atmospheric indicators such as pressure, cloud, and trade wind patterns over the Pacific have been more La Niña-like over the past few weeks, it remains to be seen whether these conditions will be sustained,” a Bureau of Meteorology spokesperson told The Epoch Times.
“The Bureau’s model suggests sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are likely to continue to cool but remain at ENSO-neutral levels.
“Three of seven climate models suggest the possibility of SSTs in the tropical Pacific exceeding the La Niña threshold from October, and another three models forecast SSTs to come close to, or just exceed, the threshold.
“It is possible a La Niña may develop in coming months but if so, it is forecast to be relatively weak (in terms of the magnitude of the SST anomaly) and short-lived.”
Climate influences such as the ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole, the Madden–Julian Oscillation, and the Southern Annular Mode are broad indicators of the expected climate, and one out of many factors in a complex system.
Long-range forecasts provide better guidance on rainfall and temperature patterns likely to occur in the next three months.
The most recent long-range analysis issued on Sept. 19 shows above-average rainfall is likely across large parts of Australia’s eastern two-thirds, but Western Tasmania will likely see drier than average conditions.
Rainfall is likely to be within the typical seasonal range across much of Western Australia, the eastern Northern Territory, western Queensland, and southern Victoria.
Warmer than average days and nights are likely across most of Australia.